What we’re looking for

 

You should consider the following as a guide to how we will be judging projects. We are conscious of 1) time constraints and 2) expected variance in the nature and scope of projects.

 

Does the project have a good theory of change, in which the flaws and uncertainties have been acknowledged by the team, and which might realistically work and have some chance of achieving high positive impact in the real world?

If the project is theory-based, is the project a logical, persuasive analysis made within a balanced argument drawn from evidence or relevant research and fields?

How creative, innovative, different from existing things, and/or unlikely to be done by others is the project?

If the project is technical, how much technical competence has the team shown (skill in programming, engineering, statistics / data science, maths, etc.)? (i.e. technical skill and technical execution quality)

Does the team show knowledge and skill in domains like entrepreneurship / governance / policy / business / media?  (i.e. non-technical skill and execution quality)

Projects should have all the standard characteristics of good pieces of research work, employing the scout mindset, good epistemics and a novel approach to X-risk studies/mitigation/theory.

Other characteristics you should keep in mind are:

-   Demonstrates understanding of context

-   Clarity

-   Makes sense in relation to theories and ideas of X-risk

-  Reasoning transparency - be clear about where you got your conclusions from

 

Note that to do well you do not need to fulfil all categories. In particular, teams focused on projects that are mostly or entirely technical will probably not focus on theory or policy with given time constraints. Likewise, teams focused on projects that are focused on policy proposals, business plans, etc. will likely not have technical aspects to their project. The innovation and theory of change categories give no advantage or disadvantage to technical or non-technical teams.

 

The sorts of projects we’d be excited about include (but are not limited to) the following:

 

  • A new methodology

  • Back of the envelope calculations

  • Forecast

  • Computational/ML projects

  • Formal models

  • Diagram

  • Paper

  • Policy proposal

  • A new project proposal

 

The judging process

By 9:30 on Sunday, November 19th, you must have a project summary prepared (roughly 300-500 words) and one piece of presentation-oriented work. This can be anything that you think captures the gist of your project. For example:

  • a poster

  • one clearly-labelled graph, or a few graphs together

  • a picture of bullet-point text with your main conclusions

  • a diagram




You only have 24 hours total for research and presentation, so we do not expect polished summaries or presentations. 

 

Submit your image using this form (one submission per team). (You can submit many times, and we will use the latest).

 

Prizes

 

First Place Overall

£150

Second Place Overall

£100

Third Place Overall

£50

 

In addition to overall prizes, we also have category-specific prizes which can be won in addition to or separately from overall prizes.

 

Prize name

Description

Prize amount

Henderson Prize (named after Donald Henderson, who lead the smallpox eradication campaign)

The project possesses a thoughtfully crafted theory of change, acknowledging potential flaws and uncertainties, and holds realistic prospects of effectiveness and potential for significant positive impact in the real world.

£50

Lovelace Prize (named after Ada Lovelace, the first person to write an algorithm to run on a machine)

The project stands out for its creativity, innovation, and distinctiveness from existing theories or initiatives.

£50

Curie Prize (named after Marie Curie, who worked on radioactivity and won a Nobel Prize in both physics and chemistry)

The team has demonstrated a high level of technical competence, showcasing expertise in areas such as programming, engineering, statistics/data science, mathematics, etc., reflecting both technical skill and quality of execution.

£50

Franklin Prize (named after Benjamin Franklin, who was an important businessman, politician, and diplomat)

The team exhibits proficiency and knowledge in non-technical domains such as entrepreneurship, governance, policy, business, or media, indicating a high level of non-technical skill and execution quality.

£50